GENERAL ELECTION IN SPAIN 2011
So, after months of speculation, Prime Minister Zapatero has announced that he will call a General Election for Spain for the 20th November 2011.
Of course, this will come as little surprise to many people as Zapatero has been under increasing pressure, from all quarters, to call a General Election in Spain since his decision earlier this year to stand down as leader of the PSOE (Socialist party) in place of the veteran socialist politician Rubalcabe.
Certainly, Zapatero’s decision to call an early general election in Spain is one of his better decisions because Spain’s pitiful economic state has not been helped by the political uncertainty of knowing that a General Election in Spain was due, in any event, for the spring of 2012. This has made any credible long term planning and strategy by the current socialist government virtually impossible – particularly as the consensus has long been that Zapatero’s ruling socialist party would be soundly defeated in 2012.
Indeed, the recent regional and local elections in Spain were a total disaster for Zapatero’s socialist party and, effectively, turned his administration into a ‘lame duck’. The socialists lost power in virtually every Spanish region with several areas overturning historically secure socialist regional or local governments.
Further ‘muddying’ of the political ‘waters’ in Spain has been caused by the Indignado movement, which exploded onto the Spanish political scene earlier this year. This movement has considerable support not least because of its claims that the current (effectively two party) political system in Spain is simply not working, that there is extensive corruption and continual abuse of power from unworthy politicians. Few people in Spain would argue the truth of this – although the Indignado movement in Spain seems to lack coherent focus beyond its evident (and justifiable fury).
Needless to say, the only way that the fury of the Indignado movement in Spain can be drawn is through a General election in Spain during which they can put up their own candidates and political party.
Who will win the General Election in Spain on the 20th November 2011?
Well, your money has to be on Mariano Rajoy and the Partido Popular (PP) conservative party. The general perception is (and always has been) that they are better economic managers than the Socialist PSOE party – and the General Election in Spain will, undoubtedly, revolve around economics.
Actually, it is not so much about ‘economics’ as some arcane academic subject as the economics of producing jobs. These are in desperately short supply with unemployment at 20.9 % with some 48% of 18-24 year olds having no work (and, in truth) little prospect of future work. This is appalling, causing terrific hardship and will get worse once the summer tourist season finishes – and with it the temporary seasonal work that has recently dropped the jobless total down from 21.3% to 20.9%.
Needless to say, many Spaniards (and probably every Indignado) will not be overwhelmed by delight at the conservative PP party’s success if it wins the General Election in Spain in November. The Indignados will consider it as ‘business as normal’ and, whilst the PP party may be better economic managers than Zapatero’s socialst PSOE party (a very low target to exceed!), Spanish politics is unlikely to be any cleaner than before.
Indeed, the PP has been recently embroiled in a corruption scandal centering on the PP party’s Francisco Camps who has just resigned as President of the Valencian Autonomus Region – having been charged with accepting suits and other gifs for ‘favours’. Amazingly Mariano Rajoy (leader of the PP party) advised Camps to plead guilty to the charge (which Camps has not yet done). Having provided this advice, incredibly, Rajoy then stated that Camps still ‘has a future where he wants’. This, to my mind, indicates an astonishing acceptance of corruption within politics in Spain that simply beggars belief.
Certainly, many of my Spanish friends consider the political parties in Spain to be as bad as each other when it comes down to corruption and the Spanish are nothing less than cynical about politics whether local, regional or national. To be honest, with good reason but maybe this is hard wired into the very culture of Spain…
As to Prime Minister Zapatero?
Frankly, I think there will be few tears at Zapatero’s passing from the premiership of Spain. He has been, to some extent, a clone of the UK’s Tony Blair – somehow or other an able politician but someone completely witless when it comes to economic matters. He has governed Spain during its greatest boom and overseen (probably) its greatest bust – whilst denying there even was an economic crisis for several years, despite it being evident even to the certified insane. He spent like a lunatic (Plan E) and then has resigned (claiming that the economy is getting better) having floundered around, out of his depth, for far, far too long.
So, it looks as though it will be all change after the General Election in Spain in November for the political parties in Spain – but only time will tell. There may yet be some surprises in store for us all!
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