General Election Spain 2011 – problems ahead or solutions?

AN APPROPRIATELY TATTY ADVERT FOR THE SOCIALIST PARTY (PSOE) IN SPAIN

We are now only singular days away from the General Election in Spain due for the 20th November, with the consensus being that the current socialist (PSOE) government will meet with a resounding defeat.  Indeed, all the indications are that the conservative (PP) party will gain power and probably with an overwhelming majority.

Of course, the big issue for the Spanish General Election is the economy: its future  management and the urgent need to reduce the current devastatingly high rate of unemployment in Spain (around 22%).  This is a major source of concern to all Spaniards, few of whom do not know someone who is not unemployed – with some 50% of 18-24 year olds now unable to find work.  This is devastating and a terrible indictment of the economic mismanagement of the socialists in Spain over the past seven years of  their government and is unlikely to be forgiven by the electorate.

Certainly, the socialists must be reeling and despiring of any chance of victory in the forthcoming General Election in Spain as the bad news  just keeps coming.

Economic growth this year (no surprises!) is not going to meet the 1.3% target of the government who now believe that growth will be only 0.8% – a figure in line with IMF and a touch above that estimated by the EU.  Meanwhile, the risk premium on Spain’s debt is at frightening heights (6.975%, a 14 year high and close to bailout time!) as international markets fear that Greek and Italian problems will soon carry over into Spain.

Interestingly, according to the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) even the use of cocaine in Spain (virtually manadatory for businessman during the boom) has dropped, which must be final confirmation, if any was needed, of the acute economic problems amongst the common population!

Hooked – the Gateway to Hell (Spain’s battle with cocaine)

Spanish economy – meltdown

Making matters worse for the socialists in Spain is the fact that over the past 18 months they have been forced to do a U turn in a (belaated) attempt to save the Spanish economy and adopt harsh economic policies considered right wing.  This has not been popular with their own supporters who feel betrayed and may, as a consequence, vote for other left wing parties (or possibly abstain from voting altogether).

So, for the socialists in Spain there really is no good news with which to seduce the Spanish electorate.

However, the obvious question is: what can a newly elected government in Spain (of whatever persuasion) do – given the huge problems it will face?

Spain, the Euro and the future of property in Spain

The Spanish economy – how bankrupt is Spain?

Well, Mariano Rajoy the leader of the conservative (PP) party in Spain and the likely winner of the Spanish General Election has been long on talk and very short on saying precisely what he will do.  The only thing that seems crystal clear is that there will be futher austerity measures and that these will be extremely harsh.  Indeed, a pointer to how ‘harsh’ these measures may be was given this week when the regional premier (María Dolores de Cospedal) of Castilla-La Mancha said that there would be a ‘lot of protests” – a scary thought.

AN EQUALLY BATTERED ADVERT FOR THE CONSERVATIVE (PP) PARTY IN SPAIN

The trouble is that cuts are one thing and the rebuilding of the economy quite another with the former ‘easy’ and the latter very complicated – particularly when combined with the added horror of the instability of the Eurozone.

So, what will happen?

It is difficult to imagine the conservative (PP) party not gaining power after the Spanish General Election but I am less confident about the PP’s ability to govern well.  This is certainly not something that they can claim to have done in the Regional and Local governments in Spain that they have controlled over the past few years.  Far from it.

The cost of living in Spain the lethal difference between 1981 – 2011

The Spanish economy – Are the Autonomous Regions of Spain Bankrupt?

In fact, it seems the regional governments in Spain controlled by the conservative (PP) party have been managed as cavalierly as those of the socialists with many burdened with appallingly high levels of debt after years of over spending and poor management.  Equally, there have been a number of truly astonishing corruption scandals surrounding conservative (PP) party members.

So, the PP party is hardly coming into the General Election in Spain ‘clean’.  Indeed,  the Indignado Movement  probably has it about right when it comes to politics in Spain in declaring that neither party has shown itself fit to govern.  This is something voiced by many Spaniards who are heartily sick of the endemic corruption in Spain that seems to drive every political action, one way or another – whether local, regional or national.

However, it is fair to say that the situation politically is not disimilar to the UK with the general perception being that the conservative party in Spain are better at running the economy – whilst the socialists are more humane (the kinder face of politics) but not much good economically.

So, do the conservatives in Spain have the answers to the economic problems in Spain?  Can they really deliver a solution?

Frankly, I rather doubt it.  But then the problems that the next government in Spain inherit are probably well beyond the capabilities of all but the Archangel Gabriel himself.  I suspect that the best we can all hope for is a ‘honeymoon’ period of confidence in the new government of Spain that may just produce sufficient positive sentiment to recharge the economy a little.

Nick Snelling – Culture Spain

FURTHER RELEVANT ARTICLES ON THE SPANISH GENERAL ELECTION

Hooked – the Gateway to Hell (Spain’s battle with cocaine)

Spanish economy – meltdown

Spain, the Euro and the future of property in Spain

The Spanish economy – how bankrupt is Spain?

The cost of living in Spain the lethal difference between 1981 – 2011

The Spanish economy – Are the Autonomous Regions of Spain Bankrupt

Politics in Spain

BBC view of spanish economy