Spanish elections, detailed results and analysis

THE SOCIALIST PARTY IN SPAIN ARE ON THE ROCKS HAVING SUFFERED A SHATTERING DEFEAT - BUT CAN THEY RECOVER?

Of course, as everyone now knows, the Spanish elections on the 20^th November 2011 resulted in an overwhelming victory for the Spanish conservative party (the PP – Partido Popular).

Interestingly, the turnout for the Spanish elections was very high with 24,590,557 votes cast, which equated to a turnout of 73.85% of those eligible to vote.

The Spanish conservative party (PP) obtained 10,830,693 votes, which was 44.62% of the votes cast whilst the socialist party of Spain (PSOE – Partido Socialista Obrero Español ) gained 6,973,880 votes and 28.73% of all possible votes on the day.

The third most popular party were the Izquierda Unida (a left wing party) which had a mere 6.92% of the votes cast and 1,680,810 votes in total.  In itself, this yet again shows that the two party political system in Spain is effectively unassailable – despite the Indignado Movement’s protests that it provides the electorate with little real electoral choice of government.

In fact, the PP party in Spain won 186 seats in the Spanish parliament (out of a possible 350), which was the greatest turn around that they have had since the 1978 Spanish Constitution – when Spain became a modern democratic state following General Franco’s dictatorship (1939-75).

However, in turn, the Spanish socialist party (the PSOE ) had their worst defeat since the Spanish Constitution and now have only 110 seats in parliament.  This was probably as bad as they had expected but it is, nonetheless, a punishing result.

Politics in Spain          Politics and democracy in Spain

Indeed, so badly have the PSOE party been mauled that there is even talk now about who will be the successor to the head of the PSOE now that Prime Minister Zapatero is retiring (thank Heavens!).  This was always expected to be Zapatero’s long standing deputy Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba but there are rumblings that other candidates may step forward for election at the party’s national convention.

The problem for any successor to Zapatero is that of disassociating themselves from the disastrous socialist government of the past seven years – if the electorate are to be seduced again by the socialist party in Spain.  This means that someone like Rubalcabe, who has been in the Spanish government since Zapatero won his first election in 2004, may not be the right person to take over the leadership.  Inevitably, Rubalcabe will be identified with every poor decision that the socialists took during their recent seven years of government in Spain and thereby be an easy political target.

But who is there better qualified than Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba?

Well, that is a moot point and only time will tell as to who replaces Zapatero.  However, I suspect that a fresh leader of the Spanish socialist party is needed and one who can take advantage of the inevitable forthcoming unpopularity of Prime Minister elect Mariano Rajoy, as he is (inevitably) forced to make deep cuts to Spanish government spending.

To date, Mariano Rajoy has yet to appoint his ministers and he has made no precise explanation of how he is going to resolve the economic crisis in Spain, even though he is under tremendous pressure to do so.  Certainly, the markets have provided him with no honeymoon, as Spanish short term bonds were, on Tuesday, more expensive than those of Greece – which is ominous.

Unfortunately, the Spanish Constitution means that Mariano Rajoy will not take over as prime minister of Spain for around another month – however unbelievable that may sound!

Under the Spanish Constitution of 1978, any in-coming government needs to wait for 14 days after elections in Spain to make sure that there have been no miss-counting of votes or problems with the electoral procedures.  After that, there are various formalities that mean any actual transfer of power occurs at a progress that is positively stately – with Mariano Rajoy unlikely to take the reins of power until around the 20^th December.  This slow progress in the middle of a crisis is absurd and the last thing that Spain needs…

Nick Snelling - Culture Spain

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